为何突然大跌A股半日蒸发1.55万亿!一个数据引发血案,美联储降息预期削弱,引来全球股市一片嚎

888真人国际平台

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Today's plunge has made investors a little off guard! I did not expect the transmission of logic to be so fast!

Last Friday, the US Department of Labor announced non-agricultural data for June. The number of new jobs in June was as high as 224,000, which exceeded market expectations. This also weakened the reason for the Fed to cut interest rates to some extent. As a result, it also triggered the fall of US stocks on Friday night. At the same time, the gold market also fell sharply, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly.

Brokerage China reported in the early morning of this morning: From the data of the North Capital, the core chips of many core assets have been locked in by foreign capital, while foreign capital is affected by external fluctuations. US employment data released last Friday far exceeded expectations, resulting in lower expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts and US stocks adjustments. According to Henry Santon, one of the "old ancestors" of Western economics, when the market is in full employment, there should be no more money. This "expected difference" has already appeared. If the external market is adjusted, the A-share core assets will be cracked. For details, please click《核心资产等于抽烟喝酒、吃醋、蘸酱油?近两月风头生变,对比全球77股,A股核心资产抱团面临挑战》

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Sure enough, today's A-share market saw a sharp dip in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index once fell more than 90 points, and the decline was over 3%. The core asset SSE 50's biggest decline also exceeded 2.8%; A stock market value evaporated 1.55 trillion yuan. The background of this kind of market is that the net outflow of funds in the north is less than half a day.

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In addition to A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Japanese stocks, South Korean stock markets and other Asia-Pacific markets fell across the board. This also confirms the above judgment. If the external market is weak due to the expected weakening of interest rate cuts, the northbound funds will also follow the net outflow.

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xx那么,这个市场现在还能发挥好吗?分析师认为,风险释放后市场仍可预期。首先,尽管预计美联储的降息将会减弱,但它仍然存在。如果其经济数据减弱,将会降息,但会延迟。其次,如果调整充足,北岸资金将不会放弃A股优质资产;第三,如果外部经济持续改善,国内经济也可能有机会在第三和第四季度触底反弹,这更有利于市场投资热点的扩散和盈利效应。

美国就业数据触发血腥案件

上周五,根据美国劳工部的数据,6月份新增非农就业人数达到224,000人,远高于上月修正的72,000人,表明美国劳动力市场没有失去动力,这使得5月数据显示更倾向于。这是一次意外。虽然6月失业率上升0.1个百分点至3.7%,但主要是由于劳动参与率从62.7%上升至62.8%。

除了超出预期的新就业外,其他失业数据弱于预期。 6月份,美国失业率上升至3.7%,预期和之前的值均为3.6%,这应该与劳动参与率的增加有关。 6月劳动参与率上升至62.9%,前值为62.8%,预期值为62.8%。在薪酬方面,6月份月平均月工资增长0.2%,预计增长0.3%。之前的价值被修改为增加0.3%。 6月份美国的平均年度小时工资增长率为3.1%,预期增长率为3.2%。之前的价值增加了3.1%。

根据芝加哥商业交易所“联邦观察”,非农业数据公布后,美联储7月份降息25个基点的可能性从一周前的67.7%上升至95.1%,而概率则为50个基点降息幅度从32.3%下降到4.9%。美元指数大幅反弹至97以上。这是自6月底以来的最高水平。美国10年期国债收益率也反弹至2%大关,但仍与3年期国债收益率相反。

由于5月份的非农业数据远低于预期,且价格数据继续低于2%的目标水平,预计市场将加速美联储下半年的降息。然而,6月份的非农业数据似乎为美联储降息渠道的开放增添了变数。由于之前的市场,美联储的降息非常强劲。这一变量的到来导致市场形成了相对明显的预期差异,这也引发了全球市场动荡。

美国股市周五走低。

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黄金市场也大幅下挫。

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美元指数走高。

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美国资本市场的表现引发了今早开盘的亚太股市的一波抛售。今天,A股市场经历了急剧下滑。上证指数一度下跌超过90点,跌幅超过3%。核心资产跌幅最大的是50%,A股市场价格在一天内跌破1万亿元。截至上午收盘,两市仅有203只股票上涨,3,395只股票下跌。幸运的是,只有6只股票下跌,并且每日涨停14只。

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香港市场也全面下挫。许多便士股票暴跌。北京体育文化(01803.HK)和诚兴国际控股(02662.HK)跌幅超过85%,中国水业集团(01129.HK),瑞慈医疗(01526.HK)及亚洲电视控股(00707.HK)跌幅超过85%超过40%。

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亚洲股市也全线下挫。

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市场仍倾向于降低美联储的利率

市场调整的程度实际上取决于市场对美联储利率预期的反应。

中信建投表示,预防性降息仍是美联储政策的背景。包括鲍威尔在内的大多数美联储主要领导人都倾向于对美国经济的潜在风险采取行动。从周五开始,美国股市在非农业公告后大幅低开,在市场收盘时,大部分失地和较低的VIX指数均已收复。市场仍对7月份的降息充满信心。

然而,从欧洲局势来看,现任欧洲总统德拉吉将于2019年10月卸任,而现任国际货币基金组织总裁拉加德预计将接任。鉴于拉加德缺乏中央银行的经验,欧洲有声称德拉吉可以重启量化宽松政策,从而在拉加德上任后部分消除政策不确定性。一旦欧洲重启量化宽松政策,它将有利于美元并打压黄金。但从另一个角度来看,它也加剧了美联储降息的压力。

中金公司表示,6月份的非农业预测压倒了市场的降息。芝加哥商品交易所利率期货降息50个基点的可能性从之前的29%下降到5%,降息25个基点的可能性上升到95%。高位。在这种背景下,围绕宽松预期和降息逻辑的一些主要资产价格表现显示出一些放松。此外,尽管全球基金在不久的将来继续流入整体债券基金,但利率债券的流出已经扩大;美国股票市场的ETF基金也经历了大量外流。考虑到当前市场对于放松预期更为充足,包括欧洲和美国以及近期维修处于或接近超买之后的整体新兴市场,估值也高于均值或甚至高于标准差的1倍围绕市场的后续行动降息和央行事件(下周的鲍威尔听证会以及本月底欧洲央行和美联储FOMC会议)有可能波动甚至利用获利了结。

However, on the other hand, the better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in June and the more unexpected non-agricultural developments indicate that the US fundamentals remain relatively stable overall, which is in line with the previously announced PMI in the major Eurozone markets. Still forming a more obvious contrast.

However, in the medium term, considering that there are still variables in trade disputes, global economic growth is still further slowing down, and the possibility of the Fed’s preventive rate cuts, the logic of interest rate cuts will not be completely reversed, with slow growth and loose policies. In the race, the actual interest rate downturn is still the main line of asset allocation in the second half of the year.

Analysts believe that in terms of the A-share market, the biggest advantage is that the valuation is relatively cheap. If the adjustment is sufficient, the funds in the north will not let go of the high-quality assets of the A-shares, and there will still be an index fund in the next few months. In addition, if the external economy continues to improve, the domestic economy may also have the opportunity to bottom out in the third and fourth quarters. Even if interest rates are not cut, this will also benefit the market investment hotspots and the proliferation of profit-making effects. In the near term, with the opening of the China Daily, some opportunities for stocks with a break in the middle of the newspaper are coming soon.

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